This is an excellent article by Bruce Schneier in response to the push for more surveillance and security in the wake of the Boston bombings. While most politicians don’t have the backbone to stand up for freedom and individual rights, they can at least insist on having more transparency and accountability for any new laws expanding security policies.
After an ABYSMAL first round of predictions, I’m on to the second round after going 3-for-8.
The Penguins need to count their lucky stars that they are playing in the second round. The Islanders gave them almost more than they could handle and if New York had better goaltending, we would be talking about who the Islanders would be facing. Pittsburgh is in tough this round, mainly due to the fact that the Islanders showed other teams how to play against them. Ottawa is getting healthy at the right time and if you mix in the Cooke-Karlson business, this series will definitely have a lot of emotion. The Sens were also a bit lucky getting past the banged-up Canadiens. Craig Anderson was the main reason for the Sens’ victory and look for him to be strong against the Penguins. If they can solve Anderson, then Pittsburgh will have a fairly easy time of it. If they can’t, then the door is open for the Sens. Ultimately I don’t see that the Senators have enough firepower to go toe-to-toe. They will give it a good fight but Pittsburgh’s offense will carry the day.
Despite the fact that the Leafs totally collapsed in the last 10 minutes of game 7, they did make the Bruins look vulnerable. Most of Boston’s scoring came from one line and in the playoffs, that is never a good thing to rely on. The Rangers, on the other hand, won their game 7 by having phenomenal goaltending. They worked hard and made the Capitals have to force the issue which led to mistakes, which led to New York goals. If the Bruins cannot find additional scoring, I can’t see them outworking the Rangers, who will be willing to play a bang-and-crash style if need be. With the edge in goaltending going to New York, I see them taking it in 6 for the upset.
The Kings-Blues series was one of the best I think I’ve ever seen. The hockey was intense in every game and it was a shame that one team had to lose. The series definitely could have gone 7 games, but fortunately for LA, it didn’t. The Sharks, on the other hand, played lacklustre hockey against a Canucks team that I had honestly expected to be stronger. Vancouver never looked dangerous for more than the odd player her and there and so the Sharks coasted to an easy victory over an easy team. LA will be anything but easy. I don’t think the Sharks will be ready to play a strong, physical team and they will find themselves in a hole very quickly. LA will pound the sharks into submission and their goaltending will give the Sharks fits. I won’t predict a sweep because San Jose does have good goaltending that could maybe steal them a game or two (although to be honest, it was never really tested in the Vancouver series), but it won’t be enough.
Isn’t it funny how a team that is too old, or missing too many key pieces, makes the playoffs for the 22nd year in a row and then knocks off a team that is tougher and faster than they are? The Red Wings surprised many by making the playoffs, but they showed a lot of grit and heart beating a tough Anaheim team. Chicago, on the other hand, just rolled against the Wild, continuing on the roll they started way back on game 1. My biggest concern with the Blackhawks is that they really haven’t faced much adversity this year. If Detroit can steal a few games, will the Hawks be able to maintain their roll? On paper, this series should be over quickly, but I just think the Wings will give them trouble. If Chicago can expose the Detroit defense then they will have success. The bottom line is that Detroit will give it a go, but won’t have the legs or experience on the back-end to beat Chicago.
Ah Spring, when hockey fans fancy turns to a rather sizeable piece of silverware. The Stanley Cup playoffs are upon us and once again, I am continuing my yearly tradition of prognostication. If you want to participate, then put your picks (or criticisms of mine) in the comments section.
On paper, this shouldn’t be much of a contest, and in reality, I don’t think it will be. The ‘Hawks are far deeper than the Wild and have been on a roll since the start of the year. I don’t think the Wild have gelled as well as they’d hoped this season with all the new additions over the summer. Chicago’s goalies have gotten the job done and I honestly can’t see where the Wild with find the offensive punch to overcome that. This could easily be a 4-game series.
This isn’t the greatest matchup for Detroit. Despite getting in the playoffs for the 22nd straight year, this isn’t the Detroit team of old. They have a bunch of injuries and that has really impacted their ability to move the puck. On the other hand, is there a better two-way player in the game that Pavel Datsuk? This guy can do everything on the ice. He’s a game breaker and Anaheim better hope that they can shut him down. That being said, I think the Ducks are deeper, bigger, and just plain better. Goaltending is a bit of a saw-off here, but I have to give the offense to the Ducks. Still, it’s the playoffs and anything can happen.
The Canucks stumbled to their way to a division title in a very weak division. Simply put, they rarely looked dangerous and played not to lose for so many games. Some commenters have said that the team has learned to win “ugly”, but I disagree with that. The team has been inconsistent from day one and has too readily fallen into a “prevent defense” mode in games. The twins have merely been above average players and that will not do for the playoffs. Schneider has been good and one has to hope that Luongo can step up if needed. San Jose, on the other hand, is led by “No Show Joe” Thornton. Although he showed up and dominated in the playoffs for the first time last season, will he be able to do it again? What about San Jose’s goaltending? Defense? Scoring? There are just too many question marks for me on that San Jose team. While not an ideal matchup for the Canucks, it is better than some of the other matchups. If the Canucks can find their scoring touch, they should be ok. On the other hand, if the Sharks can pound on the Canucks, they can beat them into submission. This one is a toss-up of two teams that aren’t really that good, but I’ll give it to the Canucks.
This is going to be an ugly series where both teams beat on each other as hard as possible for as long as possible, with the winner being the team that can absorb the most. Neither team excels in any one particular area of the game outside of the physical side of things. Both teams have goaltending that can be great and defenses that are solid. I will admit I didn’t see that much of LA this year, but I did see a bunch of St. Louis games. I think this series is going to be like the old Dallas-Edmonton series: tough, physical, with no quarter given. I give the edge to St. Louis based on their overall team defense.
Is there a scarier team in the East than the Penguins? They are rolling and they will make roadkill out of the Islanders. Admittedly, the Islanders have given their fans some hope for the future by making the playoffs this year, but other than Tavares (who’s been great by the way), they just don’t match up. I’m giving New York one game, but I just can’t see them giving Pittsburgh much of a run.
With the dizzying array of injuries the Senators had this year, it is amazing that they kept pace and made the 7th spot. They showed a lot of team mental toughness all season and I don’t think there is a team as mentally resilient as they are right now. The Habs sort of stumbled their way into 2nd place, mainly on the weakness of their goaltending. I think they will get it turned around now that the playoffs are here, but if they don’t, they are in serious trouble. They had some significant injuries near the end of the year, so that may ultimately limit how far they can go, but for right now, I think they will play a great series against Ottawa.
Is Adam Oates a candidate for the Jack Adams trophy? He has completely turned around the Capitals and that started with turning around Alexander Ovechkin. I don’t think there is a player (or a team) on more of a roll right now and this was probably the worst possible matchup for the Rangers. I will definitely give New York the edge in goaltending and a slight edge in terms of banging and crashing, but I have to wonder when the offense is going to show up. Washington has it in spades and they are a confident bunch right now. Goaltending will win the Rangers two games, but that’s about it.
This original-six matchup should be a dandy one. Although I would have preferred a Toronto-Montreal series, playing the Bruins will be a great way to welcome Toronto back to the playoffs after a long absence. The Leafs definitely have some belligerence, truculence, and pugnacity all in the mould of Brian Burke. They team can also score some goals, with Nazim Kadri developing nicely, Joffrey Lupul rejuvenating his carrer, and Phil Kessel having a good year. This will be a tough matchup for Boston, who are big, strong, and can put the puck in the net. Goaltending is a toss-up here. This series should be a knock-down drag’em-out brawl. I will give the edge to Boston based on the defensive corps. I think they are also deeper and more experience. The pressure on the Leafs will be immense, but they have already handled some of that pressure by just getting to the dance. If Toronto can get timely goaltending, they can stretch this series out.
This is a good article on the topic. The scary part was that they were able to identify 1 out of 8 American men (out of 911 in the study) based solely on their Y-chromosome. You know that this type of analysis is only going to get “better” and more accurate.
Despite my best efforts to avoid getting sucked into the media coverage of the NHL lockout over the past 4 months, I have inevitably been subjected to bits and pieces of news as I have perused my feeds in Google Reader. Last night before I went to bed, I did the usual once-over of my feeds just to catch up on the news of the day and strangely found myself with a bit less apathy towards this whole lockout mess. I actually read a few articles on the state of things and found myself thinking “Wow! They could actually solve this.”.
Just to back up a bit, I certainly wasn’t surprised that this whole mess actually happened. Greed will do what it will do and there was more than enough to go around between the owners and the players. I didn’t think I’d missed NHL hockey per se, but I did miss being able to see that kind of hockey. Having the ability to just throw on the game I love over dinner on a Tuesday night was something I enjoyed. Sure, there were a few CHL games on, but those were usually on Friday nights so it really didn’t scratch that mid-week hockey itch. Despite the fact that I coach several teams, there is a huge difference between coaching and sitting back and simply watching a game as a fan. I was definitely missing that. I’d managed to take in some of the Spengler cup games over the holidays, plus a few games of the World Juniors and enjoyed both, but they were both over too soon.
Returning to this lockout mess, I found it very strange that after nearly 4 months of feeling and saying “I don’t care”, “I hope they both lose”, and “I’m never going back”, I was suddenly hopeful that there would be a season and I could get back to watching hockey. Logically I know that the NHL isn’t the only “game” in town when it comes to hockey but nothing else was really able to replace it. Much to my chagrin, I wasn’t really eager to have it replaced. Had I been completely taken in by the NHL’s marketing team, as well as that of their sponsors and corporate partners? Was it the high-definition broadcasts? The six zillion camera angles with the ultra slow motion replays? The “Captain Obvious” play-by-play announcers? The forced and often painful “insight” granted us by “experts” in between periods? Or was it that the whole kit-and-kaboodle was just what I had come to find entertaining (or simply comfortable)?
This morning I did my usual start-of-day crawl through the news and shock! There it was plastered everywhere that a deal had been reached. Oh Joy! Oh Rapture! There stood the two principals in this whole soap opera announcing that it was over, seemingly proud of themselves for conquering the inevitable. As I read the news and watched the accompanying, often painfully repetitive videos, all I could feel was this sense of ambivalence. Yes, I can once again go back to watching my hockey on Tuesday nights, get my fix of Ron and Don on CBC, and listen to the empty cliché responses of the players to the leading and softball questions of interviewers. Yes I can once again see spectacular displays of skill sprinkled amongst long stretches of mediocre hockey dominated by systems of play designed to all but eliminate those same displays of skill. Yes I can once again watch many of the “stars” of the game make half-hearted attempts in regular season games and then disappear in playoff games when it counts most.
Many fans will return immediately, and many more will trickle back in over the next few years. Too many of us grew up with it and it has become a very significant part of our lives. I know I will be back, but not because I strongly support the game or the teams or players. I will be back because it is comfortable, not because I really care. I’m not sure how many other fans will be back for the same reason, but Heaven forbid that the NHLPA or the owners ever make it feel uncomfortable for the fans again.
I had more to write about how I think the owners and NHLPA need to be represented by people who have actually played the game, but that is a whole other rant.
Updated:
I just read a quote from Buffalo Sabres goaltender, Ryan Miller: “I hope that fans will forgive us for the role we played in this lockout.” It is a nice sentiment, Ryan. My advice is that you the players need to give fans reasons to forgive you instead of just asking for it. Why don’t you make sure that for every game covered under this new CBA, every player brings 100% to every shift regardless of whether they are a star or a grinder? Why don’t you bury the hatchet with the owners right now and give everything you can to grow the game and repair the damage done? Why don’t you make sure that at the end of this CBA, the players are proactive and make a first, reasonable offer to ownership long before there can be any talk of another work stoppage? Do all of this and maybe the fans will forgive the players. As for the owners, that’s an entirely different matter.