Category: Hockey

Anything except coaching that is related to hockey.

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Hockey Personal

2012 Stanley Cup Predictions – Round 3

Oi! What the heck is going on with my predictions this year?  After going a horrid 2-for-8 in the first round, I end up going 0-for-4 in the 2nd round.  I’m not sure I could be doing much worse.  On the upside, most of the “experts” have also done poorly this year.

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers (1) vs. New Jersey Devils (6) – New York in 6

New York is the only top seed left (I’m not counting Phoenix) in the playoffs.  They’ve made it to the Eastern Finals and will play the same kind of defensive game as the Devils.  Despite his hall-of-fame credentials, I am worried about Martin Brodeur’s age and whether he can handle another grinding series.  On the other hand, Ilya Kovalchuk has been all-world.  He plays exactly the way the coaching staff want and he can singlehandedly break a game or series wide open.  I just feel New York has a bit more depth and has an edge in goal.

Western Conference

Phoenix Coyotes (3) vs. Los Angeles Kings (8) – Los Angeles in 5

The improbable meeting the unlikely.  For two teams out of the playoffs in early March, it is certainly surprising to see them meeting in the Conference finals.  Both teams’ goaltending has been outstanding.  Both teams defend the middle of the ice very well.  And both teams rely heavily on their defense an system to hold teams to low-percentage shots. One other unflattering similarity is that neither team really scores all that much.  Although you would think the scoring advantage would favour the Kings slightly, it hasn’t seemed to work out that way.  I’m picking LA because they are on a roll (8-1) and will be well rested and less banged up.  Jonathan Quick is a bit more battle tested than Mike Smith, I think, and Jeff Carter has been a bit too quiet for the first two rounds.  This series won’t be decided by the team that plays best, but it will go to the team that has fewer poor shifts. Phoenix has had a bit of a dream run, but after knocking of #1 and then #2, knocking off #3 is the next logical step for LA.  Look for this to be a really ugly, grinding series with little scoring.

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Hockey Personal

Ugh ….. What’s wrong with the Canucks?

I know I picked the Canucks to win their series against the Los Angeles Kings, but based on the first two games, I’m afraid I’m going to have to revise that prediction.  Kings in 5.

A friend of mine posted a great comment on Facebook: If “this is what I live for,” I’m a little disappointed…

I couldn’t agree more with that statement.

The Canucks have shown little if any real evidence to date that they can beat the Kings.  After the Canucks gave up the first goal, a short-handed one I should also point out, in the second game, I said “that’s the series”.  I’m sticking by that.  It is fairly obvious what the major issues are.  I do want to make a few general points though, starting with the goaltending situation and finishing off with a few things I noticed in the second game.

  1. Goaltending is NOT the issue so far in the series for the Canucks.  Too many people are ready to throw Roberto Luongo under the bus and bring in Saint (Cory) Schneider.  To those people, I say, “Get a grip!”.  The Canucks are not down 2-0 because of Luongo.  I would argue that he has in fact very played well in the two games.  I will admit didn’t like that fourth goal tonight where he ended up on his belly as it is tough to make saves or even recover in that position.  By that point, however, the game was effectively over.  In fact, I thought Luongo made some spectacular saves early in the game that kept it from getting too far out of reach too early.  This city is absolutely BRUTAL when it comes to the goaltenders on the team and it really is shameful.  One day a goalie is a saint with their name ringing through the streets, the next day they are replaced with “We Want The Backup” followed by cheering when the backup goalie is actually put in.  Come on people!  As for replacing him, Luongo should not be punished for the shortcomings of the players in front of him.
  2. There is a serious problem with the preparation of this team.  They are not in playoff mode in any sense of the phrase.  For this, the responsibility lands squarely on the leadership group of the team as well as on the coaching staff.  I know a lot was made about how the team finished the last 2 months of the regular season.  Too many pundits and fans claimed that the Canucks weren’t winning correctly.  I think they were correct in what they said, but totally wrong in what most of them meant.  The talk mainly centred around the fact that the Canucks weren’t blowing teams out 5-1 like they did last year and that the close games were simply not the right way to win.  I disagree.  The problem wasn’t that they weren’t blowing teams out, it was that they couldn’t put in a full 60 minutes of hard, focused hockey.  The team never had to push themselves to stay focused for 60 minutes and play with the authority they should have had (and would need in the playoffs).  They simply were in cruise control mode and that allowed them the luxury of feeling that they never had to panic or feel desperate.  Put plainly, they haven’t played meaningfully in a very long time and that has induced a large number of bad habits.  You can’t flip a switch suddenly and shake those habits, especially against a team that has basically been playing playoff-type hockey for 2 months just to get into the post-season.  Remember the 6 P’s: Proper Planning Prevents Piss-Poor Performance!
  3. I am sick and tired of hearing about how much of a key component Daniel Sedin is and how his absence implies that it is impossible for the team to win without him.  Bullshit!  If this team cannot withstand the loss of one player, however key, such that they are rendered incapable of playing a full 60 minutes of hard, competitive hockey (which they were not doing before Daniel got hurt, by the way) then the blame must immediately fall to the leadership group of this talented, albeit apparently very fragile team.
  4. If the Canucks do bow out early, what should happen?  A lot of people are saying that it’s the finals or bust for Alain Vingeault.  What?!?  Are they nuts?!?!?  Here’s a coach that has brought this city 2 President’s trophies (back-to-back) and also to within 1 win of the Stanley Cup.  Why would people be so eager to throw him under the bus.  Regarding point #2, if the team is eliminated early, I definitely think it will be due to the way in which they were prepared going into the series.  I do believe that management has a duty to examine things and determine the best course to take with both the players (who certainly shoulder a good chunk of the responsibility) and the coaching staff.  I doubt very much that any change should be made at the coaching level.  This isn’t to say that the coaching staff should be given a free pass, but their full body of work should be considered, and not just a single best-of-7 series.
  5. And now some points from tonight’s game specifically:
    • The first LA goal looks like it was Alex Edler’s fault – it wasn’t.  If you listened carefully (and turned the volume up), David Booth called for the pass.  Booth could see the ice and the threat better than Edler and should never have called for the back-pass.  While I don’t think Edler has played especially well in the series so far, he was not the goat on that goal.
    • On the second goal, Ryan Kesler hangs his defenseman, Dan Hamhuis, totally out to dry.  Kesler’s blind pass to the point (when he did have time to have a quick look) put Hamhuis in a no-win situation and while Hamhuis’ decision to try to hold the blueline could be questioned, he should never have been put in that situation in the first place.
    • The Canucks completely wasted the late 6-on-4 power play.  There was no focussed attempt to overload the puck so LA was simply able to turn every contest for a puck into a 1-on-1 battle that they managed to win.  Too many Canucks were standing around waiting for the puck to come to them instead of moving in to support or provide the extra body for the overload.  That’s basic hockey people, and the clearest example that the Canucks are, at present, nowhere near prepared to work hard enough to win this series.
    • What is with the lack of puck support when Henrik Sedin has the puck on the end boards and is being checked? I can count at least 3 times that his only option was to try to out-battle the (top 2 shutdown) defenseman checking him and try to feed it out to the front of the net where both of his linemates were very well covered.  I thought puck support was hockey 101 for a puck possession team.

Personally, I hope I’m wrong about my revised prediction, but unless they are a completely different team on the road, I just don’t see how a few flashes of brilliance will be able to overpower the grinding, hard-working, tight-checking Los Angeles Kings. Do they have the tools/skill to come back? Definitely! Is it possible? Absolutely! Is it probable? That’s the million-dollar question…  Let’s hope they can give us part of an answer in game #3.

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Hockey

2012 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions – 1st Round

With the close of the 2011-2012 NHL regular season it is now time for a yearly tradition of mine: playoff prognostication!  Every year for … well, ages … I’ve made my playoff predictions from round to round.  It all started out when I was a member of the West Coast Hockey League dynasty pool and has continued on after I left.  I challenge my friends and followers to post their own predictions as well to see how well we know our stuff. The rules are simple, for each series in each round pick the winning team and then justify your choice. So without further ado, here are the first round predictions:

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers (1) vs. Ottawa Senators (8) – New York in 5

The Senators have been a feel-good story all year long.  Expected to finish 15th in the conference by many, they have surprised everyone by being one of the two Canadian teams in the playoffs.  The Rangers, on the other hand, have been at or near the top of the league for most of the season.  On paper this series looks like it will be a bit of a laugher, and it probably will be.  The Rangers are a more complete team from top to bottom.  Their goaltending is solid and their coach has them playing a team-first game blocking shots and tenaciously forechecking.  The Senators will put up some fight, but in the end, it will be nowhere near enough so I’m saying the Rangers in 5 in what could likely be Daniel Alfredson’s swan song.  The only hope that the Senators have is that their goaltending gets hot while the Rangers goes ice-cold.

Boston Bruins (2) vs. Washington Capitals (7) – Boston in 5

The defending Stanley Cup champions may have stumbled a bit in the stretch drive but it won’t matter.  Their goaltending, defense, and size are things that the Capitals don’t have.  Ignoring the boatloads of experience the Bruins have, they are just plain going to run over the Capitals.  Ovechkin cannot do it all himself, even if he has been “saving himself for the playoffs”.  Semin, while dangerous, is too much of an enigma to rely upon.  Besides, how healthy are Backstrom and Green?  No, Boston will be too big, to strong, too mean, and too good in net.  Look for them to maybe give up an easy one in game 3 or 4 though.

Florida Panthers (3) vs. New Jersey Devils (6) – New Jersey in 6

While I think it’s great for the franchise that the Panthers made the playoffs for the first time in 7 years, let’s be real here: they were first place in a poor division.  They had less points than the Devils who play in a more difficult division.  I think Florida will have too much “happy to be here” feelings for them to really contend for a first round win.  They have a balanced team but it won’t be enough to get past the Devils.  Martin Brodeur and Ilya Kovalchuk will lead this team through the first round.  The devils have more experience as an organization, they have one of the best goalies ever to play in the league, and they have a GM who could probably will them to win.  The only area of the Devils’ game that I’m not sure about is their defense.  Florida will put up a fight but in the end, it won’t be enough.

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5) – Pittsburgh in 6

This is the marquee series of the first round in my opinion.  Two teams that despise each other.  This series will be nasty; fought in the trenches; no-holds-barred.  In summary, it’s going to be great! Philadelphia is big and tough and will do everything they can to intimidate (if not actually beat the hell out of) the Penguins.  They have good scoring and defense, but as usual, are a bit of an enigma in net.  Who knows what Bryzgalov is going to do?  Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has two of the most dynamic players in the game.  There is no doubt that Crosby and Malkin can score and they will definitely give their opponents fits, but how ready is Crosby for playoff hockey?  Can he take the extra banging and crashing that he will be subjected to?  I think he will but that has to remain a major concern for him and the team. My biggest worry about the Penguins is that they give up a lot of scoring opportunities against.  If Fluery isn’t near perfect, Pittsburgh’s high-flying offense may backfire.  I don’t think the Penguins can shift to a lower-tempo, more conservative game if their goaltending goes south.  I don’t see it happening, though, so I think Pittsburgh’s offense will (barely) get them past Philly’s size and strength.

Western Conference

St. Louis Blues (2) vs. San Jose Sharks (7) – St. Louis in 5

Just give Ken Hitchcock the Jack Adams award now.  The turnaround he’s engineered in St. Louis is amazing.  He has the Blues buying into a great system and he has oodles of young talent and some spectacular goaltending.  What do the Sharks have?  They limped into the playoffs again and their goaltending is questionable.  No-show Joe (Thornton and now Pavelski) are not the answer in San Jose.  Look for this to be a quick series.  Unless the Sharks grow a backbone, they will be out in the first and then the great rebuild will begin.  Big Joe and Little Joe will make an appearance here and there, but as has been their modus operandi all year, they will underperform and the Blues will overperform and that will be that.  The Blues are too young to realize that they should be nervous at this point. This has the potential to be the most boring/uninteresting series in the first round.

Phoenix Coyotes (3) vs. Chicago Blackhawks (6) – Chicago in 6

With all the potential distraction and financial constraints the Coyotes have been surrounded by in the last few seasons, I am very impressed that they have made the playoffs again.  Their strength has been their goaltending and I definitely feel that they aren’t simply going to be “happy to be here” this year.  They have a balanced team but I don’t think they will have enough to take the Blackhawks.  With Jonathan Toews out, however, there is a major hole in the offensive lineup and leadership group for the Blackhawks.  How will that affect the team?  Will their goaltending be good enough?  There are some questions surrounding this year’s edition of the Blackhawks.  I think the team has too much experience and a game that is overall suited to the playoffs so that will give them the edge.  If they take the Coyotes too lightly or if their goaltending goes south, they could be in trouble.  While I don’t think this will be a nasty series, the Coyotes will push Chicago but ultimately fall.

Nashville Predators (4) vs. Detroit Red Wings (5) – Detroit in 7

Much like the Penguins-Flyers series, this is definitely going to be a series to watch.  While it won’t be the knock-down drag-em-out series that the Penguins and Flyers will play, it will be a long, grinding series.  The Predators play that style naturally and the Wings can pretty much play any style they need to.  Pekka Rinne gives Nashville a huge edge in net, but the Wings have simply been the best team in hockey for the last 20 years and were only slowed down this year due to injuries.  If Detroit is healthy, look for their experience and puck-control game to edge out over the Predators.  If the Wings are (or get) too banged up, they will get ground down by the Predators.

Vancouver Canucks (1) vs. Los Angeles Kings (8) – Vancouver in 6

Of all the teams Vancouver probably did not want to face, it would have been the Kings.  With their outstanding goaltending and defensive system, the Kings are not what the goal-starved Canucks needed in their first round.  Despite how the final few games went for the Canucks, there are still a lot of questions surrounding their ability to score.  This year, however, there are fewer concerns with Vancouver’s goaltending.  If Luongo doesn’t perform, there is little doubt that Cory Schneider will be put in and given a chance to run with things.  That pressure is good for Luongo in my opinion.  He can’t take a period or a game off.  What will it take to get Kesler going? How about Daniel’s health and can they win without him? Is the defense deep enough?  For Los Angeles, the ability to score has got to be their biggest concern.  Despite their solid goaltending and team defense, you can’t win games unless you put the puck in the net.  This is going to be a tricky series but I think the Canucks will be able to take their experience from last year and use it to help them though this series.  Look for a few unsung heros from Vancouver, though.  I think it will take the team a series before the big guns emerge.  LA will be physical but their lack of offense will sink them in the end.  The Canucks will be too experienced, too deep, and too capable.


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Hockey Personal

Stanley Cup Prediction

I was 2-for-2 in the conference finals so my record for the playoffs is 11-for-14 for winners but absolutely dismal for the series’ length.  Now, for the final prediction:

Vancouver Canucks vs. Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Final

Well, one team is going to end a very long drought, but I am leaning heavily toward Vancouver.  The Canucks have a much deeper team, starting with their defense, and are a far faster team than Boston.  The Canucks’ transition game is unlike anything that the Bruins have seen so far.  The Bruins hold an edge in size and probably in grit.  The big issue in my mind is the goaltending.  With Tim Tomas, you could put a Peewee team out in front of him and he could steal you a series.  I’m not so confident with Luongo.  Both goalies have been inconsistent and have let in some brutal goals, so it really depends on who shows up.  With all the attention Manny Malholtra has been receiving lately, I do believe he will be a factor.  I just do believe he might get into this series and if he does, it will be game-over for Boston.  The emotional boost, plus the top-notch faceoff skills are things that the Bruins won’t be able to overcome.  The Sedins will have more space, even if they are matched up against Chara, and the second and third lines will be clicking.  I just don’t think Boston will have an answer for everything the Canucks will be able to throw at them.

Prediction: Vancouver in 5 – they take the first two, one on the road, and then win the cup on home ice.

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Hockey

Game 7 – San Jose vs. Detroit

Okay, I have to make the call and have some record of it BEFORE the game.

The Detroit Red Wings play the San Jose Sharks in game 7 of the Western Conference semi-finals tonight (Thursday May 12th, 2011).  It will be the 8th time in history that a team that was down 0-3 in the series (Detroit) has come back to force a game 7 by winning 3 straight games.  Of the previous 7 times it has happened, only 3 teams were able to complete the comeback.  In fact, in the history of 7-game series in North American professional sports, only 4 times has a team managed to come back all the way.

I can come up with a ton of reasons why San Jose can’t win and Detroit can’t lose: goaltending, experience, history, skill, players showing up, players not showing up … but none of it really matters. I want Detroit to win but I am picking the Sharks based on nothing but gut feel.  I hope I’m wrong, though.  A Vancouver-Detroit Western-final would be one heck of a series.

Check back soon for my 3rd round predictions!