Oi! What the heck is going on with my predictions this year?  After going a horrid 2-for-8 in the first round, I end up going 0-for-4 in the 2nd round.  I’m not sure I could be doing much worse.  On the upside, most of the “experts” have also done poorly this year.

Eastern Conference

New York Rangers (1) vs. New Jersey Devils (6) – New York in 6

New York is the only top seed left (I’m not counting Phoenix) in the playoffs.  They’ve made it to the Eastern Finals and will play the same kind of defensive game as the Devils.  Despite his hall-of-fame credentials, I am worried about Martin Brodeur’s age and whether he can handle another grinding series.  On the other hand, Ilya Kovalchuk has been all-world.  He plays exactly the way the coaching staff want and he can singlehandedly break a game or series wide open.  I just feel New York has a bit more depth and has an edge in goal.

Western Conference

Phoenix Coyotes (3) vs. Los Angeles Kings (8) – Los Angeles in 5

The improbable meeting the unlikely.  For two teams out of the playoffs in early March, it is certainly surprising to see them meeting in the Conference finals.  Both teams’ goaltending has been outstanding.  Both teams defend the middle of the ice very well.  And both teams rely heavily on their defense an system to hold teams to low-percentage shots. One other unflattering similarity is that neither team really scores all that much.  Although you would think the scoring advantage would favour the Kings slightly, it hasn’t seemed to work out that way.  I’m picking LA because they are on a roll (8-1) and will be well rested and less banged up.  Jonathan Quick is a bit more battle tested than Mike Smith, I think, and Jeff Carter has been a bit too quiet for the first two rounds.  This series won’t be decided by the team that plays best, but it will go to the team that has fewer poor shifts. Phoenix has had a bit of a dream run, but after knocking of #1 and then #2, knocking off #3 is the next logical step for LA.  Look for this to be a really ugly, grinding series with little scoring.

I know I picked the Canucks to win their series against the Los Angeles Kings, but based on the first two games, I’m afraid I’m going to have to revise that prediction.  Kings in 5.

A friend of mine posted a great comment on Facebook: If “this is what I live for,” I’m a little disappointed…

I couldn’t agree more with that statement.

The Canucks have shown little if any real evidence to date that they can beat the Kings.  After the Canucks gave up the first goal, a short-handed one I should also point out, in the second game, I said “that’s the series”.  I’m sticking by that.  It is fairly obvious what the major issues are.  I do want to make a few general points though, starting with the goaltending situation and finishing off with a few things I noticed in the second game.

1. Goaltending is NOT the issue so far in the series for the Canucks.  Too many people are ready to throw Roberto Luongo under the bus and bring in Saint (Cory) Schneider.  To those people, I say, “Get a grip!”.  The Canucks are not down 2-0 because of Luongo.  I would argue that he has in fact very played well in the two games.  I will admit didn’t like that fourth goal tonight where he ended up on his belly as it is tough to make saves or even recover in that position.  By that point, however, the game was effectively over.  In fact, I thought Luongo made some spectacular saves early in the game that kept it from getting too far out of reach too early.  This city is absolutely BRUTAL when it comes to the goaltenders on the team and it really is shameful.  One day a goalie is a saint with their name ringing through the streets, the next day they are replaced with “We Want The Backup” followed by cheering when the backup goalie is actually put in.  Come on people!  As for replacing him, Luongo should not be punished for the shortcomings of the players in front of him.
2. There is a serious problem with the preparation of this team.  They are not in playoff mode in any sense of the phrase.  For this, the responsibility lands squarely on the leadership group of the team as well as on the coaching staff.  I know a lot was made about how the team finished the last 2 months of the regular season.  Too many pundits and fans claimed that the Canucks weren’t winning correctly.  I think they were correct in what they said, but totally wrong in what most of them meant.  The talk mainly centred around the fact that the Canucks weren’t blowing teams out 5-1 like they did last year and that the close games were simply not the right way to win.  I disagree.  The problem wasn’t that they weren’t blowing teams out, it was that they couldn’t put in a full 60 minutes of hard, focused hockey.  The team never had to push themselves to stay focused for 60 minutes and play with the authority they should have had (and would need in the playoffs).  They simply were in cruise control mode and that allowed them the luxury of feeling that they never had to panic or feel desperate.  Put plainly, they haven’t played meaningfully in a very long time and that has induced a large number of bad habits.  You can’t flip a switch suddenly and shake those habits, especially against a team that has basically been playing playoff-type hockey for 2 months just to get into the post-season.  Remember the 6 P’s: Proper Planning Prevents Piss-Poor Performance!
3. I am sick and tired of hearing about how much of a key component Daniel Sedin is and how his absence implies that it is impossible for the team to win without him.  Bullshit!  If this team cannot withstand the loss of one player, however key, such that they are rendered incapable of playing a full 60 minutes of hard, competitive hockey (which they were not doing before Daniel got hurt, by the way) then the blame must immediately fall to the leadership group of this talented, albeit apparently very fragile team.
4. If the Canucks do bow out early, what should happen?  A lot of people are saying that it’s the finals or bust for Alain Vingeault.  What?!?  Are they nuts?!?!?  Here’s a coach that has brought this city 2 President’s trophies (back-to-back) and also to within 1 win of the Stanley Cup.  Why would people be so eager to throw him under the bus.  Regarding point #2, if the team is eliminated early, I definitely think it will be due to the way in which they were prepared going into the series.  I do believe that management has a duty to examine things and determine the best course to take with both the players (who certainly shoulder a good chunk of the responsibility) and the coaching staff.  I doubt very much that any change should be made at the coaching level.  This isn’t to say that the coaching staff should be given a free pass, but their full body of work should be considered, and not just a single best-of-7 series.
5. And now some points from tonight’s game specifically:

• The first LA goal looks like it was Alex Edler’s fault – it wasn’t.  If you listened carefully (and turned the volume up), David Booth called for the pass.  Booth could see the ice and the threat better than Edler and should never have called for the back-pass.  While I don’t think Edler has played especially well in the series so far, he was not the goat on that goal.
• On the second goal, Ryan Kesler hangs his defenseman, Dan Hamhuis, totally out to dry.  Kesler’s blind pass to the point (when he did have time to have a quick look) put Hamhuis in a no-win situation and while Hamhuis’ decision to try to hold the blueline could be questioned, he should never have been put in that situation in the first place.
• The Canucks completely wasted the late 6-on-4 power play.  There was no focussed attempt to overload the puck so LA was simply able to turn every contest for a puck into a 1-on-1 battle that they managed to win.  Too many Canucks were standing around waiting for the puck to come to them instead of moving in to support or provide the extra body for the overload.  That’s basic hockey people, and the clearest example that the Canucks are, at present, nowhere near prepared to work hard enough to win this series.
• What is with the lack of puck support when Henrik Sedin has the puck on the end boards and is being checked? I can count at least 3 times that his only option was to try to out-battle the (top 2 shutdown) defenseman checking him and try to feed it out to the front of the net where both of his linemates were very well covered.  I thought puck support was hockey 101 for a puck possession team.

Personally, I hope I’m wrong about my revised prediction, but unless they are a completely different team on the road, I just don’t see how a few flashes of brilliance will be able to overpower the grinding, hard-working, tight-checking Los Angeles Kings. Do they have the tools/skill to come back? Definitely! Is it possible? Absolutely! Is it probable? That’s the million-dollar question…  Let’s hope they can give us part of an answer in game #3.

I was 2-for-2 in the conference finals so my record for the playoffs is 11-for-14 for winners but absolutely dismal for the series’ length.  Now, for the final prediction:

Vancouver Canucks vs. Boston Bruins – Stanley Cup Final

Well, one team is going to end a very long drought, but I am leaning heavily toward Vancouver.  The Canucks have a much deeper team, starting with their defense, and are a far faster team than Boston.  The Canucks’ transition game is unlike anything that the Bruins have seen so far.  The Bruins hold an edge in size and probably in grit.  The big issue in my mind is the goaltending.  With Tim Tomas, you could put a Peewee team out in front of him and he could steal you a series.  I’m not so confident with Luongo.  Both goalies have been inconsistent and have let in some brutal goals, so it really depends on who shows up.  With all the attention Manny Malholtra has been receiving lately, I do believe he will be a factor.  I just do believe he might get into this series and if he does, it will be game-over for Boston.  The emotional boost, plus the top-notch faceoff skills are things that the Bruins won’t be able to overcome.  The Sedins will have more space, even if they are matched up against Chara, and the second and third lines will be clicking.  I just don’t think Boston will have an answer for everything the Canucks will be able to throw at them.

Prediction: Vancouver in 5 – they take the first two, one on the road, and then win the cup on home ice.

After going 7-for-8 in the first round (but with only 1 correct prediction on the number of games), the time has come for my picks for the second round.

Eastern Conference

Washington Capitals vs. Tampa Bay Lightning

Washington was 4-1-1 against the Lightning this season and have completely revamped their game from a year ago.  The team has completely bought into the attention to defensive details and that makes them dangerous.  The Lightning should have punched through the depleted Penguins but struggled.  Tampa has good firepower, a great coach, and a solid veteran goaltender.  I question their overall experience and ability to get things done, though.  I think Washington learned a lot last year about what it takes and I think Tampa, as a group, has to learn it this year.

Prediction: Washington in 6 – More firepower but their goaltending could be a real difference.

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Boston Bruins

The Bruins became the first team in a 7-game series to win it without scoring a power-play goal.  They got lucky, in my opinion.  The Flyers on the other hand got pushed way too hard against a banged-up Buffalo team.  Philly’s goalie situation is a major concern.  This will be a physical series between The Big Bad Bruins and The Broad Street Bullies.  Who can survive the physical battles will have an edge.  On the other hand, the Flyers are to the Bruins what the Blackhawks were to the Canucks.  Does Boston have what it takes to exorcise the memories of the last series these two teams played.  Boston has the edge in goaltending for sure.

Prediction: Boston in 6 – Tim Tomas puts the team on his shoulders and drags the Bruins into the 3rd round

Western Conference

Vancouver Canucks vs. Nashville Predators

After the heart-stopping game 7, the Canucks might just have taken a critical step towards becoming a better team.  I still have very little faith in Luongo and even less in the Sedins.  Luongo can’t go down swimming quite as much and the Sedins have to find a grittier game or show that they can dominate shift after shift in the playoffs.  Vancouver won’t face the same level of offense as they did against the Hawks, so that may give up a bit more room for the Kesler line and that may be the difference maker.  Nasshville, on the other hand, is a fairly uniform team.  They have a strong first pair on defense and they play as team in all three zones.  Rinne was outstanding against the Ducks and was stingy against the Canucks in the regular season.  For the Predators to have a chance, Rinne must hold the fort and win a few games.

Prediction: Vancouver in 6.  The Canucks are deeper on forward and defense than the Ducks were and Nashville didn’t exactly overwhelm Anaheim.

Detroit Red Wings vs. San Jose Sharks

After easily handling the Coyotes, the Red Wings will be well rested for the series and this is bad news for the Sharks.  The sharks ran into all they could handle with the L.A. Kings in their first round series and certainly didn’t look too dominant at times.  The Kings’ goalie really shone, though, but a team with that much firepower shouldn’t have struggled that much.

Joe Thornton finally showed up for a few games but San Jose’s goaltending is a bit of a sideshow. With Detroit, I want to say that their goaltending is suspect as well, but I certainly would go with their goaltending over the Sharks’.  Detroit is deeper and more experienced.  If they can stay (and get) healthy enough, I don’t see the Sharks having the depth or skaters to punch-counterpunch with the healthier Wings.

Prediction: Detroit in 6.  The Sharks will put up a fight but they will be outclassed and their goaltending won’t be enough.